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The Analyst

March' 02

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Recession: End in Sight? 
Corporate Bankruptcies : Caveat lender 
Wealth Added Index : A new metric 
Credit Derivatives : Last green bottle 
Indian Debt Markets :Bonding with the times 
Earnings Management: Bad practices of the bull era
Investment Banking : Conflicting interests 
Sales Tax Reforms : Towards transparency 
IMF : On the reform path 
Healthcare Business : The next big thing
Indian Two-wheeler Industry : Changing gears 
Private Power Projects : Journey through darkness 
HP-Compaq Merger : Who dares wins
Indian Oil Corporation : Acquiring energy 
Delisting of MNCs: The vanishing act 
Strong Dollar: Unfolding the mystery 
Bioterrorism: The new threat 
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Recession: End in Sight?

-- N Janardhan Rao, Team Analyst

US, the world's largest economy, has been reeling under recession since early 2001, engulfing the whole world. Monetary policies failed to arrest the adverse effects of the resultant economic upheaval. Excessive borrowings have been held responsible for this global economic cataclysm. During the growth phase, both the household and business sectors borrow indiscriminately, anticipating an eternal economic expansion. However, when the economy is in a downturn, borrowings mismatch earnings and future cash flows. Sectors find themselves in a vicious circle. Under present circumstances, a rebound requires dilution of the borrowings burden to restore confidence and bring back productive efficiency and consumption propensity.

Article Price : Rs.50

Corporate Bankruptcies : Caveat lender

-- D Satish, Team Analyst

With more and more highly leveraged companies going bankrupt, the commercial banks and financial institutions are feeling the pinch.

Enron, the energy giant filed for bankruptcy recently. It was a huge energy company and a member of Fortune 500 club. Though this collapse has received wide attention all round, the plight of its creditors is unknown. Being one of the largest bankruptcies in the history of American business and given the leverage Enron carried, it is sure that the fate of banks and financial institutions, which have lent to Enron hangs in balance. Such a large bankruptcy has the potential to bring down its creditors along with it.

Article Price : Rs.50

Wealth Added Index : A new metric

-- D G Prasuna, Team Analyst

Wealth creation has been the professed goal of companies all along and continues to be so. But how many have actually created wealth and how many have not? There are many metrics ranging from ROI to EVA. Stern Stewart's Wealth Added Index is a new addition to this list.

Article Price : Rs.50

Credit Derivatives : Last green bottle

-- Debasis Mallik, Team Analyst

Credit derivatives, though a nascent debt instrument, has grown steadily in spite of turbulent economic conditions. Despite the Enron debacle and the Argentine debt default having posed threats to the industry, the market is efficient enough to absorb the shock.

Article Price : Rs.50

Indian Debt Markets : Bonding with the times 

The history of the Indian capital markets has been a tumultuous one replete with the emergence of many new financial instruments and mechanisms, contributing in good measure to enhanced marketability, efficiency, transparency and participation. This has also contributed to making the Indian investor community today an adaptive, discerning and observant one that rapidly adapts to any new and innovative investment opportunity, says R Vaidyanath, General Manager, Debt Markets, The Stock Exchange, Mumbai.

Article Price : Rs.50


Earnings Management: Bad practices of the bull era

-- Amit Singh Sisodiya, Team Analyst

What's in a number? A lot, if they happen to be earnings numbers. And, thanks to the Enron saga, even audited numbers look a bit colorful now. As more and more revelations about financial manipulations keep pouring in, it raises a serious concern: Is financial reporting at a risk of losing its credibility?

Article Price : Rs.50

Investment Banking : Conflicting interests 

-- Debasis Mallik, Team Analyst

The investment banking profession is passing through an acid test. Against the backdrop of the inherent conflicts of interest, implementation of ethical practices seems to be the only savior.

"History tells us that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments and countries by controlling money and its issuance."

- James Madison,Fourth President of the US

Article Price : Rs.50

Sales Tax Reforms : Towards transparency 

-- Y Chandra Sekhar, Team Analyst

The complicated taxation system in India has hindered the free flow of trade. At the same time it has made the "Made in India" goods non-competitive in global markets. For speedy growth of economy and industry, it is important that India has a transparent, simple and broad-based tax system.

Article Price : Rs.50

IMF : On the reform path

-- D Satish, Team Analyst

IMF is in the process of reforming itself and is trying to focus its operations on its core objectives mentioned in the mandate. This is an effort to make itself more acceptable and dispel the controversies surrounding it.

Article Price : Rs.50

Healthcare Business : The next big thing

After telecommunications and Internet, the healthcare business is all set to revolutionize the domestic scenario. With the entry of big corporate houses into the sector in the last two years, the essential ingredients of the next revolution are all in place.

Article Price : Rs.50


Indian Two-wheeler Industry : Changing gears 

-- D G Prasuna, Team Analyst

The Indian two-wheeler industry is experiencing a major shift in its shape and structure. The established players in the industry are taking a hard look at their portfolio of products and are in the process of reshuffling them to meet the expectations of customers. The beneficiary is of course the consumer, who has an increased array of products to choose from.


Private Power Projects : Journey through darkness 

-- Y Chandra Sekhar, Team Analyst

Plagued with structural and technical problems, many of the private power projects may not see the light of the day. The recent move of the financial institutions may be the final nail on the coffin.

Article Price : Rs.50

HP-Compaq Merger : Who dares wins

-- Amit Singh Sisodiya and CSV Ratna Team Analysts

Technology battles are all about being daring. And, who dares wins as the likes of Microsoft and SAP suggest. It appears that those opposing Carly Fiorina ignore the fact that HP is a company with serious underlying problems. Most businesses she inherited are aging and in mature markets. Compaq's Michael Capellas has a similar story to tell. The fate of the merger depends on how she wins over her adversaries. If she wins, she will have won half the battle. If she does not, she will still be remembered as a daring leader.

Article Price : Rs.50

Indian Oil Corporation : Acquiring energy 

-- D G Prasuna, Team Analyst

The acquisition of IBP by Indian Oil Corporation puts the already formidable IOC on a better footing. The company that has created records with the highest sales figures ever in the Indian business scenario is all set to reach new heights.

Article Price : Rs.50

Delisting of MNCs: The vanishing act 

-- D Satish, Team Analyst

With more and more MNCs opting for delisting from the Indian stock exchanges, in times to come the Indian investor would find his once favorite stock missing.

Article Price : Rs.50

Strong Dollar: Unfolding the mystery 

-- A V Vedpuriswar, Dean, ISM; Naveen Das, Dean, ISFM; & Rahul Sheoran

Despite the ongoing recession, the dollar has been by and large steady and strong. In the absence of any better investment avenues the appreciation is bound to continue.

Following the September 11 terrorist attacks, the US plunged into a state of gloom. Still, the US dollar has appreciated from Yen 119 to Yen 133 and from Euro 1.09 to Euro 1.14 (See graphs). It is well-known that the Japanese yen is overvalued against the dollar. A further appreciation of the dollar against the yen cannot be ruled out, especially in view of Japan's prolonged recession and a serious crisis in the country's financial system. But the appreciation against the euro has been surprising, when we keep in mind that macroeconomic parameters in the eurozone have generally looked better than in the US.

Article Price : Rs.50

Bioterrorism: The new threat

-- Dr. Ajit Kumar, Faculty, IU

This millennium is witnessing the biological warfare turning into bioterrorism. Terrorists can take advantage of host country's technology and wreak havoc on any society they like.

Biological warfare is in use since a long time. Nations at war always try to inflict as much damage on the enemy as possible by destroying each other's infrastructure, agriculture, etc. This was limited only to the warring nations that too during the war. But in this millennium this type of warfare faces the risk of falling into the hands of terrorists. Terrorists can wreak havoc with these kinds of weapons. The greatest biological threat facing the world is, in fact, the possible use of biological weapons by terrorists to wage economic warfare.

Article Price : Rs.50

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