War
begets peace is the new mantra', if one goes by the philosophy
of US President George Bush Jr. His declaration of a new war on
terrorism has meant that the politics of war, and hence peace,
is entering a new phase. It also heralds a shift in the US President's
focus once again on the Middle East. Mounting pressure in the
Middle East is indicating a war in the Persian Gulf between America
(including its allies) and old foe Iraq, reminiscent of the 1990s
Gulf war. While the US and UK are keen on a military action against
Iraq, China, France and Russia are against any such move.
While
various permutations and combinations are being tried to avoid
another war in the Persian Gulf, economists are trying to analyze
the impact of Gulf War II on the US economy, Iraq and other Middle
East countries, and broadly the global economy, which is already
going through a recession. Indian economists are worried about
the possible contagion effect of Gulf War II on the Indian economy.
The Indian economy has so far remained immune to the global recession
and is coursing along with reasonably good growth rates. Therefore,
to put it in a proper perspective, how different is the situation
this time around for the Indian economy? Questions abound, ranging
from the impact on different sectors to fallout of the country's
foreign currency reserve position. And what is the most likely
stand that the Indian Government would take in the event of a
war? And more importantly, how this will influence the country's
long-term foreign policy |
