This paper has applied spectral analysis to reveal possible cyclical components in the Indian stock returns
series. For power spectrum analysis, the study used daily data of four broad-based market indices viz.,
BSE Sensitive Index, BSE National Index, NSE S&P CNX 500 Index and NSE S&P CNX Nifty Index
during the period from January 1991 to December 2001. The univariate spectra (power spectrum) for
the four returns series suggest that there are no significant cyclical patterns present in four stock price
indices. Apart from that, the study has considered three major developed stock markets indices for crossspectrum
analysis, viz., Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) of the US, FTSE 100 index of the UK, and
Nikkei 225 of Japan, spanning over the period from January 2000 through December 2001. The crossspectrum
analysis suggests that there are no similar long-term development features between India and
developed stock markets studied here.
The rich stock of theoretical and empirical literature in the area of stock price behavior
reveals that stock price is not merely a number as we observe; rather, it is a manifestation
of all available information in the market at a certain point of time. For practitioners,
studying pattern in stock price behavior is quite important in the sense that it is to be
used to predict future movements in prices, which will guide the trading rule. The policy
makers, on the other hand, view stock prices as indicators of policy changes on the
monetary and fiscal front, i.e., any change in the economy gets reflected in stock prices
and hence studying stock price behavior assumes immense importance from the policy
point of view. Any kind of extraordinary or random movement in prices exhibiting gross
deviation from that implied by economic fundamentals raises concern both for
practitioners in the market place as well as policy makers. Therefore, understanding and
analyzing stock price behavior have been of direct interest to academics in general and
model builders in particular.
Over the past few decades, there has been a dramatic reversal in opinion concerning
the degree of information contained in the data, leading to a new approach towards
analysis of economic and financial time series. There are two major approaches to analyze
the behavior of a time series, viz., time domain and frequency domain. In fact, the analysis
of time series commenced in the frequency domain. The idea of decomposing a time series
into different components with different frequencies was technically termed as spectral
analysis of time series, which developed as a distinct and parallel discipline in contrast
with the analysis of time series in time domain. |