China is a story of remarkable
contrasts always. It boasts currency reserves of $2.3 bn, making it the richest country in the
world. Yet, it is a country where 200 million people live with less than $5 a day.
It played a key role in 2009 in leading the global economy out of the worst
crisis. While worldwide stock market indices rallied 60-80% from March 2009
lows and witnessed a 10-20% gain for the year, Chinese stock market
gained strongly amid swift policies from the central government. Chinese
market pundits predict that it can overtake the US in terms of market
capitalization within three years. Despite global
slowdown, China's economy managed to grow around 8.9% in
the third quarter of 2009; property market was a prime driver
supported by Beijing's massive half-trillion-dollar government stimulus.
However, mainland's rise will not happen without some serious
bumps along the road of miracle. These include stock market and property bubble,
currency and trade protectionism concerns, social instability and carbon
reduction, etc. With soaring property prices in
key cities, investors and bankers in China are losing their sleep about the
next great real estate bubble waiting to be popped. Even the Chinese
government is worried about the excessive increase in house prices in some cities and
now wants to monitor capital flows to check overseas speculative funds.
According to new regulations, any Chinese who wants to buy a second house must
make a down payment of at least 50%. Besides, developers who failed to
start building on their land within two years of purchase would forfeit their
plots. Despite these measures, economists and bankers fear that history could
repeat itself. They express concerns that China's property market has got
similar features like Japan in 1980 and the US in 2008 where residential real
estate bubble ended in big crashes, battered banking system and slow
recoveries. Analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of
speculative capital has been funneled into the Chinese stock and real estate markets.
|