One of the most feared economic
consequences of the global fi-
nancial crisis has been the protectionist juggernaut by
governments. As the global economy begins to
emerge from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, there is a
growing concern that rising protectionist spiral could short-circuit the nascent
global economic recovery. Despite repeated promises by the global leaders to
minimize trade barriers, protectionist measures have been rising. According to
a report released by Global Trade Alert (GTA), a trade policy think tank
based in Europe, the accumulated number of protective trade measures across
the world increased from 85 in July 2009 to 297 as of December 9, 2009. In the
second quarter of 2009, though many economies have turned the corner,
protectionist pressures have not softened. the GTA report reveals that the
protectionist dynamics were worst in the first three quarters of 2009, but
protectionism hasn't yet reached the scale of the 1930s but water doesn't have to
boil to scald.
To discriminate against foreign producers, protectionist measures
like higher tariffs, import quotas, exchange controls, immigration restrictions
and export subsidies are being planned by governments around the world to
secure their own economic interests. Even the US, the global free-trade champion
has imposed 46 separate protectionist measures on goods and services
trade with the outside world. The EU implemented 90 and countries like China
and India introduced 51 and 29 of such measures. The GTA report says this
tendency is particularly worrisome. Global trade flows have already suffered
their sharpest drop since the 1930s and trade analysts expect global
trade would fall more than 10% this fiscal with both supply and demand hit
hard by the recent global financial crisis. The trade volume will decline mainly on
account of shrinking economies, lack of trade finances and protectionism
measures by governments. |