Money supply process in the Indian economy has witnessed significant changes in the
post- reform period. The stability of the relationship between the growth of base money
and broader measures of money during the period has been questioned in several studies. In
this regard, Jha and Rath (2001) find that neither M1 nor M3 is cointegrated with reserve
money. The changing determinants of alternative contributing factors to the money stock
has significant implications for the transmission process of monetary policy. Some of the
earlier studies, like Kohli (2001), indicate the changing monetary scenario in the Indian
economy with special reference to the implications of foreign capital inflow for the money
supply process. It has been identified that foreign exchange inflow associated with portfolio
investors from foreign countries causes appreciation of the rupee. On the other hand, money stock
in the economy has expanded significantly due to the foreign exchange inflow. The
implications of these developments necessitate a reinterpretation of the conventional explanation of
the transmission process. In this regard, the dynamics related to interest rate changes has to
be analyzed.
Among the studies which looked into the monetary policy dynamics in the Indian
economy, some of the post-reform studies tried to explore the transmission mechanism in
detail. Compared to the earlier studies which failed to establish conclusive evidences for the
channel based explanation in the transmission process, post-reform studies, such as Ray et al. (1998),
came out with evidences of interest rate and exchange rate channels in the Indian
economy. Using a VAR model, it is shown that there exists a long-run equilibrium among
money, income, prices and exchange rate in India. It was observed that monetary shocks and
exchange rate shocks are endogenous in the post-liberalized era. Moreover, the results suggest
significant changes in the monetary relations between the pre-and post-liberalized periods. |