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The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
Winter Blues, Investor Mood and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange
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Previous research has recognized strong and robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression risk aversion and stock market returns. The influence of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) on market returns is known as the SAD effect. We study the SAD effect in the context of the Tunisian stock exchange. Using the daily return data of the Tunisian stock market indices—BVMT and TUNINDEX—for the period January 1998 to December 2008, we do not confirm the presence of the SAD effect on the market returns. Our results may be explained by the geographic location of Tunis city at latitudes closer to the equator line (36° North), where SAD effect becomes generally less significant.

 
 
 

The recent researches in behavioral finance are directed towards the environmental factors which can have systematic effects on investors' mood, and thus on their trading behaviors. Earlier studies in this field of research focused on the effect of the meteorological condition variations on the stock returns of New York, for example, Saunders (1993), that was approved later by Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003), Dowling and Lucey (2005 and 2008), Levy and Galili (2008), among others. The basic motivation for the search of a link between the climate and the stock market prices is the psychological evidence. This evidence documents that people feel better when the sun appears and that this wellbeing leads to a good mood with regard to the investment prospects.

Because of the local nature of the meteorological phenomenon, other researchers have tried to discover the implications of the seasonal variations. The most notable studies in this direction are: the consideration of the lunar cycle effects (Dichev and Janes, 2003; Dowling and Lucey, 2005 and 2008; and Yuan et al., 2006); daylight savings called `Daylight Savings Time Change' (Kamstra et al., 2000 and 2002; Pinegar, 2002; Worthington, 2003; Lamb et al., 2004; Dowling and Lucey, 2008; and Müller et al., 2009); and seasonal variation in the length of the day and the associated medical phenomenon called `Seasonal Affective Disorder or SAD' (Kamstra et al., 2003a; Garret et al., 2005; Dowling and Lucey, 2005 and 2008; and Jacobsen and Marquering, 2008). These authors have provided an exploration method of the seasonal character of the stock returns, basing their arguments on clinical research in medicine and psychology, which indicates that the low levels of luminous hours lead to a high incidence of SAD, which in turn leads to a risk-averse behavior (Kamstra et al., 2003a and 2003b; and Garret et al., 2005).

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, Winter Blues, Stock Market Returns, Tunisian Stock Exchange, Trading Strategies, Stock Market Anomalies, Tunisian Stock Market, OLS Regression Method, Clinical Research, Risk Aversion.