The effect of demand shocks is studied within an economy characterized
by a temporally articulated production structure and bound by rational
agents. Hicks’ (1973) model is extended in order to include trade
between two economies with demand links. This allows to tackle issues
as the transmission of shocks and the coordination of monetary policies.
By means of numerical simulations the author shows that because of
irreversibilities, temporary demand shocks trigger disequilibrium
dynamics with permanent effect on the economy. Market imperfections,
namely a certain degree of wage and price stickiness, prove necessary
to avoid the implosion of the system. An accommodating monetary
policy, by softening financial constraints, is effective in stabilizing the
economy. When considering trading economies, a certain degree of
openness has positive effects, and independent monetary policies may
in some occasions be desirable.
This paper studies the effects of demand shocks within an economy characterized by a
temporally articulated productive structure. It builds on the Neoaustrian model, introduced
by Hicks (1970, 1973) and developed by Amendola and Gaffard (1998). This setting allows
the study of economic systems along a dimension that is usually neglected, namely the
intertemporal coordination of economic activity. The standard Walrasian approach, based
on the costless coordinating services of the auctioneer, assumes away any type of
coordination problem. Agents’ plans are always harmonized, and the instantaneity of the
production process avoids problems of coordination over time. Many crucial properties of
the system, as the uniqueness and optimality of the equilibrium, can be proved in a
sufficiently general setting only when coordination is assumed (Howitt, 1990).
The problem of intertemporal coordination is at the center of the research program initiated
by Hicks in the early 1970s. Its defining characteristic is the temporal structure of
production, modeled by considering vertically integrated processes that use labor in two
distinct (and successive) phases: First construction of productive capacity and then its
utilization. Such a representation allows the analysis of transition paths between equilibria
(the traverse), whose insights would be impossible to derive using the standard,
instantaneous representation of production. |