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The IUP Journal of Applied Economics
Study of Output Convergence Pattern of BRIC Economies :Application of Fuzzy Mathematics
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The present paper tests the projected convergence pattern of per capita GDP of Brazil, Russia, India and China (also known as the BRIC economies) using a comparatively new technique, the fuzzy clustering algorithm. The analysis, based on Goldman Sachs annual report of 2003, shows that by the end of 2050, the projected per capita GDP of all the four countries will tend towards convergence as compared to 2000. According to the Report, by the end of 2050, the four countries will emerge as very strong economies of the world and together they will be greater in terms of GDP than the G6 countries (the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, France and Italy). In absolute terms, China will be the number one economy, followed by the US at second position and India at third position.

 
 

After World War II, most of the developed countries of that time, analyzed its repercussions and were disturbed with the happenings. They decided to work together constructively for the benefit of the entire world, which was possible only by increasing world trade. This resulted in the formation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1948, which reflected the commitment of the member countries towards the development of world economy. India was also one of the founding members of GATT and shared the same objective. At that time, the economic condition of India was not good; more than 50% of its population was living below the poverty line and it was one among the least developed economies of the world.

After 1991, when India followed the concept of globalization and opened its market to the world, its economy started transforming and now it is the third largest economy of the world, after the US and China, according to the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and it is expected to play a vital role in the world economy in the future. According to Goldman Sachs annual report of 2003, India, along with the Brazil, Russia and China (also known as the BRIC economies) could become a much larger force in the world economy by 2050. The report highlights the key features of these economies and their growing contribution to world output and trade. It also opines that the BRIC economies could be larger than the G6 countries (US, Japan, UK, Germany, France and Italy) in terms of GDP, in future.

 
 

Applied Economics Journal, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, GATT, Gross Domestic Product, GDP, Economic Development, BRIC Economies, BRIC Countries, Neoclassical Growth Model, Fuzzy Clustering Analysis, Cluster Convergence Analysis, Economic Development.