China has overtaken Germany and in 2010
is fast closing in on Japan to become the second largest economy in the
world. China's economy has zoomed ahead, growing by nearly 9% in 2009. One recent
IMF forecast predicts another 10% expansion in both 2010 and 2011. The massive
financial stimulus policy to counteract the global
`credit crunch' economic crisis is praised and
2009 saw the biggest easing in monetary and financial conditions in history and China's
banks more than doubled the amount of loans extended in 2008. China is increasingly
seen as an `economic superpower' and is so intimately linked to the US that the
two countries are being dubbed the `G2'. As
outward investment has grown, China has become the biggest lender to the US with one
result being that the currency, the RMB, is
predicted to become a reserve currency by some. However, reports of labor shortages -
both factory and skilled workers - are
re-emerging. Is this blistering performance a `miracle'
or is it a `mirage' hiding some real dangers? Are there any issues and challenges in
the seemingly limitless Chinese labor market?
This performance is not unalloyed or uncontested. There are some siren
voices of caution being raised, even within China itself by senior officials. This concern
revolves around the growing twin threats of,
first, an over-heating economy and inflationary pressures, mixed with a property
(especially housing) boom and credit binge; and,
second, some worrying labor market and demographic pressures and trends. |