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The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management
Migration Analysis of Indian Corporate: Rating-Based Approach
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Implementation of Basel II has made it compulsory for banks to study the transition and default in their rating grades to judge the quality of their credit portfolio. In the similar direction, the present study is undertaken primarily to view the migration and default rate conditional on rating of the long-term debt issuers and macroeconomic fundamentals for the period from January 1994 to January 2009. The CRISIL's annual ratings of debts issued by 578 corporate (Manufacturing Companies) formed the basis of the analysis. It is found from the analysis that the least stable retention rate was found in low rating grade issuers. The mortality (default) rate was observed low for high rated issuer and high for low rated ones. The analysis clearly indicates that the ratings transition is cyclical in nature and so the default probability.

 
 
 

Credit risk is defined as default risk, i.e., the risk of loss from a borrower's failure to repay the amount owed (principal or interest) to the bank on a timely manner based on a previously agreed payment schedule. Basel has defined this risk as, "the potential that a borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms", and RBI is of the view that, "it is probability of loss associated with diminution in the credit quality of borrowers or counterparties (guarantors)". On the whole, credit risk is the probability of loss from a credit transaction. Under Pillar-I of Basel II (2006), commercial banks are required to compute minimum capital requirement for credit risk as per standardized approach and Internal Rating-Based (IRB) approach.

In terms of RBI guidelines, Indian banks have migrated to Basel II Accord by adopting Standardized Approach (SA) w.e.f. March 31, 2009. Now, to initiate the preparation for implementing advanced approaches of Basel II, RBI released draft paper including the deadline to complete the whole exercise. Accordingly, the earliest date of making application by banks to RBI under IRB approach for credit risk (foundation as well as advanced IRB) is April 1, 2012 and the likely date of approval by RBI is March 31, 2014. In addition, RBI has advised banks to undertake an internal assessment of their preparedness for migration to advanced approaches for the regulatory capital purpose. Under the advanced approach of credit risk, the amount of capital that a bank should hold against a given exposure will be a function of the credit risk of that exposure. The credit risk, in turn, is a function of four parameters—Probability of Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), Exposure at Default (EAD), and Maturity (M).

 
 
 

Financial Risk Management Journal, Indian Corporate, Manufacturing Companies, Credit Risk, Indian Banks, Transition Matrix, Gross Domestic Product, GDP, Economic Sectors, Industry Sectors, Credit Transition Matrices, Credit Rating Agencies, Indian Economy.