Futurology
is the scientific method of predicting the future. To predict the future, one
needs to understand the present, all the forces that are relevant in shaping every
aspect of the present and how these forces are expected to shape things and events
in future. It looks at the future in a medium to longterm horizon. It projects
recent trends into the future through extrapolation, scenario building, brainstorming,
forecasting and through a variety of other techniques that the subject of futurology
has acquired, developed and learned to use. Futurology also involves taking proactive
stand of importing desirable future outcomes or scenarios and conducting normative
research to explore better strategies. Prof Henry David defines futurology as
`the intellectual form in which a society renders account to itself of its probable
and possible futures.'
Another,
and perhaps more detailed definition is given by Eleonora Masini and Knut Samset:
`Futurologyis a field of intellectual and political activity concerning all sectors
of the psychological, social, economic, political and cultural life, aiming at
discovering and mastering the extensions of the complex chains of causalities,
by means of conceptualizations, systematic reflections, experimentations, anticipations
and creative thinking. Future studies therefore constitute a natural basis for
subnational, national and international, and both interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary
activities tending to become a new forum for the basis of political decisionmaking.' |
