Hong Kong's economy, which
symbolizes a tiny but robust
and open economy, has been hit badly by the current global
financial crisis. The chiefly exports-driven economy could not escape the wrath
of global downturn. Its exports plummeted by 22% year-on-year in the
first three months of 2009, and the economy contracted by 7.8% during the same
period. This is the economy's worst performance ever since the East Asian
financial crisis of 1998. The sharp decline in GDP was double, more than
actually anticipated by some analysts and can be attributed to a rapid decline in
exports and private consumption, plus a drop in investment in buildings,
machinery and other business equipment. Now, the territory's government
forecasts GDP to shrink further by around 5.5-6.5% this year, compared with
its earlier prediction of a 2-3% fall. Analysts are of the view that recovery
depends on how fast the global economy gets back to prosperity.
Post-Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, Hong Kong's economy had
been on the rebound. However, in the meantime, the dotcom bubble of 2000, the
9/11 terrorist attacks on the US in 2001 and the outbreak of Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 had severely damaged the economy of
Hong Kong, though not to the extent as that of the current one. In the last quarter
of 2008, the growth of Hong Kong's economy dipped deep into -2.5%,
its worst performance since 1999. This sordid performance of Hong Kong is in
line with the sharp declines reported recently by Mainland China, Taiwan,
Japan and Singapore, indicating a downward spiral and even tougher
times ahead. Simultaneously, domestic demand has lost much of its
momentum with weaker consumer and investor sentiments amid tighter credit
market. Moreover, with the developed economies plunging into recession and
the consequent waning of demand for products from emerging and
developing economies, Hong Kong's exports dropped during 2008. In 2008, total
exports of goods increased by mere 2% in real terms, a significant drop from
the 7% increase in 2007, and registered a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% in
the fourth quarter.
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