Oil price deregulation is definitely a positive development
and augurs well for the Indian economy. It was a much-awaited
reform, though implemented partially. It is clear that the intent is there
to deregulate the sector, which is crucial. This will benefit the economy, as
it will lead to efficient use of scarce energy resources in times of
escalating crude prices. The problem with subsidy is that the general public
does not bear the brunt of the rising prices, on account of which no
appropriate steps are taken to curtail consumption and use energy resources
efficiently.
Fuel price hike will be a negative in the short-term, resulting in higher
inflation. As per our estimates, the impact of the hike in auto (petrol and
diesel) and cooking (domestic LPG and kerosene) fuels will lead to inflation
increasing by 0.63%. However, over the medium to long-term, positives
from the price hike will be felt by the economy, as it will reduce the
overall subsidy burden, in turn lowering the fiscal deficit and resulting in lower
borrowings by the government to fund the subsidy.
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