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The IUP Journal Of Agricultural Economics:
Estimating Growth Rates and Decomposition Analysis of Food Grains Production in India
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The main objectives of this study are to examine: (1) the growth and pattern in India's food grain production and (2) the decomposition of the total yield increases into pure yield effect and cropping pattern. The present study is based on secondary data for the last 44 years, i.e, from 1955-56 to 1998-99. The study shows that there is, in fact, some deceleration from Pre-green Revolution Period to the Green Revolution Period, coming substantially from a decline in the growth rate of area in the Post-green Revolution Period/Pre-economic Reform Period and Post-economic Reform Period. The major contribution of output is through yield increase. The first order interaction of yield and cropping pattern was a major factor for the growth of food grain output. Therefore, the future effort should be made to stabilize and expand the area of food grains along with increasing yield level. For this, modern technology of agriculture should be promoted, which consists of pest and disease resistant varieties.

The total geographical area of India is 328.73 million hectares (Mha) but in 1998-99, the reporting area for land utilization was 306.05 Mha of which 42.31 (13.82%) Mha area was not available for cultivation. The area under forest in 1955-56 was 51.34 (15.6%) Mha and was increased in 1998-99 up to 68.98 (22.5%) Mha. The cultivable wasteland in 1955-56 was 21.55 (6.56%) Mha and it reduced in 1998-99 up to 13.90 (4.5%) Mha. The net area under cultivation was 142.58 (46.6%) Mha, in which 13.59 (4.4%) Mha was current fallow and 50.45 Mha were sown twice, which was gradually shrinking due to population growth, lack of suitable government policy, absence of diffusion of modern techniques and technologies of cultivation and unavailability of water for irrigation.

Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy and agriculture production has two components—food grains and non-food grains. The gross area under food grains in 1998-99 was estimated 101.34 Mha and their production in the same year was 188.11 million tons (Mt), giving an average yield 1856 kg/ha (see Appendix). The irrigated area under the food grains was 53.60 Mha, and 78.4 Mha area was under high yielding varieties. The total consumption of chemical fertilizers was 16.797 Mt. In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyze the area, production and yield of food grains in India since 1955-56 to 1998-99.

 
 
 

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