Agricultural Trade and its Linkages to Macroeconomic Variables in the Indian Economy

-- Deepika M G

This paper articulates that India has very little share in the world trade of agricultural commodities. This paper states that the importance of external trade lies with the linkage it has with the other sectors of the economy like the terms of trade, level of prices, trade balance, etc., which act as a mechanism to enhance growth in the economy. Further, this study examines the relationship between exports and growth in GDP in agriculture and finds that there is a two-way causation between the two, seen through the trends in simple growth rates and also through the results of the Granger Causality Test. An increase in export growth is preceded by a favorable growth in GDP in agriculture. But establishing the causality from exports to growth seems to be difficult, since the variables affecting the growth in agriculture are many. According to this study, the period of early 1990s and mid 1990s was favorable for all, as against the late 1990s, which showed a declining growth in prices, capital formation, exports and the GDP. This study also points out that the terms of trade has shifted in favor of agriculture in the 1990s, which seems to play a greater role in inducing the growth in the agriculture sector as well as in the economy.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.

Trade Liberalization and Terms of Trade in Dairy Products in India

-- T R Rajarajan

The combined effects of both domestic reforms and WTO commitments in the last decade have changed the environment in which the Indian dairy industry will operate in future. Terms of trade is a significant indicator of gains from trade and efficiency of domestic industry. In average terms, the terms of trade of Indian dairy products has declined in the post-liberalization period as compared to pre-liberalization years. The year-wise trend is unstable with wide fluctuations in post-liberalization years. The real effects of trade liberalization will unfold only when the WTO provisions are properly implemented.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.

Economic Development of Agriculture in India

-- M Ramanjaneyulu

This paper broadly estimates the growth rate of agricultural GDP that is based on factors such as capital formation, institutional credit and fertilizer consumption. Since these variables have a positive effect on GDP the null hypothesis is rejected. Further, this study also estimates the export performance of agriculture on agriculture GDP and tests whether the increasing expenditure on subsidies results in reduction of agriculture capital formation. For this purpose, this study uses log linear regression models at various levels. The author concludes that in order to strengthen trade promotion of agro-products, central and state governments have to involve practically rather than make policies.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.

Estimating Growth Rates and Decomposition Analysis of Food Grains Production in India

-- Gyan Prakash, Ram Kumar Jha and R C Sharma

The main objectives of this study are to examine: (1) the growth and pattern in India's food grain production and (2) the decomposition of the total yield increases into pure yield effect and cropping pattern. The present study is based on secondary data for the last 44 years, i.e, from 1955-56 to 1998-99. The study shows that there is, in fact, some deceleration from Pre-green Revolution Period to the Green Revolution Period, coming substantially from a decline in the growth rate of area in the Post-green Revolution Period/Pre-economic Reform Period and Post-economic Reform Period. The major contribution of output is through yield increase. The first order interaction of yield and cropping pattern was a major factor for the growth of food grain output. Therefore, the future effort should be made to stabilize and expand the area of food grains along with increasing yield level. For this, modern technology of agriculture should be promoted, which consists of pest and disease resistant varieties.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.

Can Micro Initiatives Strengthen Links Among Gender, Development and Democracy: Empirical Evidence from the State of Andhra Pradesh

-- S Galab and P Prudhvikar Reddy

This study examines how far women self-help groups model of development has helped empower women and whether formal and informal institutions relating to state, market and civil society have become inclusive of poor women due to women self-help groups model of development. The authors articulate that extreme poverty and widespread inequality between men and women are the main impediments to democracy and development. Further, this study suggests that as gender equality is an important factor in the development process, empowerment of women may address this issue to some extent. To sum it up, among all the women-based group models of poverty alleviation, the Self-Help Groups (SHGs) are promoted as basic entities and are federated to tackle higher order functions.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.

Determinants of Rural Non-farm Employment in Telangana Region of Andhra Pradesh: A Case Study

-- M Koteswara Rao and P Venu Gopal

This study explicates that Agriculture still continues to be the major source of employment in the developing countries like India. It is distressing to note that more than five decades of agricultural growth could not relieve the burden of agriculture in absorbing the labor force. In this paper, the determinants of Rural Non-farm Employment (RNFE) in telengana region in Adilabad district are analyzed. A multivariate statistical technique is used in the analysis of determinants and agricultural, demographic variables and infrastructure facilities are taken into consideration. The authors conclude that the analysis on the trends and determinants of RNFE clearly show that agricultural and demographic changes have a significant bearing on the level and the composition of RNFE in the study area.

2006 IUP . All Rights Reserved.