In present recession, German banks are languishing under the burden of low profitability, high costs and poor corporate credit quality. While tax cuts, public spending and labor reforms could spur growth, the imperatives of the `growth and stability pact' of EMU do not allow implementation of some of these reforms. Lack of strong political will is the other stumbling block. While German banks do not have Japanese type problems of high NPAs, overexposure to sensitive sectors etc., they do need corrections through consolidation and reforms before the present problems turn into a crisis.
In Germany, economic growth was successfully
propelled by social market economy for many years,
but no longer, thanks to the radically transformed
political priorities, in the wake of
globalization, which demands capital market
economy. Germany accounts for over one-third of
Euroland's GDP and thus is an economic force to
reckon with.
Why
Germany has become the sick man of Europe? There
are many reasons for it. Germany is no exception
to the general problems of Europe as it has
outdated labor laws and immigration policies
besides ambiguous social welfare expenses
resulting in high cost of production. While
European Central Bank is obsessed with inflation
targeting at 2%, under the `growth and stability
pact', Germany faces the prospect of falling into
a deflationary spiral, if not disinflation. While
the solution lies in enhanced public spending to
spur growth, its fiscal deficit, which is 3.7% of
GDP (well above the mandated 3% level), does not
permit this. In fact, Germany is forced to cut
spending and raise taxes, surely not the best way
to fight recession. There are certain structural
problems as well for Germany. The unification of
East and West Germany in 1990 resulted in huge
costs for improving the infrastructure in the
eastern part, which proved to be a drag on the GDP
growth. The unified Germany has a higher
unemployment problem, at least 10% higher than
that of the Europe. It has higher real interest
rates due to very low inflation. |