The present article analyzes and explains one of the most current scientific fields—
the modeling of phenomena by means of Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Neural
Nets. In this case, a traditional demand model of great importance for business
marketing decisions is developed. The model is estimated by means of Minimum
Quadratic Regression techniques and Artificial Neural Nets. After presenting both
the methods for the estimation, explanation and prediction of the demand, these
techniques are critically analyzed and complementary research lines are proposed
to support the marketing decision-making process.
A model is the specification of a series of
variables and their interrelations designed
in order to represent a real system.
Traditionally, marketing models have been
classified according to their purpose and
structure (Lilien and Kotler, 1990).
Classification according to the purpose
is centered on the description and
prediction of the marketing phenomena.
Marketing decision-making is a less risky
task with an explanation of the
relationship between a series of variables
and the ability to foresee what will happen
if one of those variables is modified.
According to their structure, models can
be verbal, graphic and mathematical. There
is a natural tendency to relate a model with
a formal mathematical expression and
though this is desirable, most models
known today are based on the theoretical
verbal formulation of a certain system.
Graphic models are an intermediate step,
which helps to represent verbal content
visually. In this way, the understanding of
the model content is simplified and can be
studied more easily.
However, a few marketing decisions
today are based on models. Intuition,
inspiration, “sense of smell” and
misunderstood experience1 have been, and
still are, the prevailing models to explain
reality in a lot of companies. |