June 2021
Focus
The first paper, "India's Stock Market Bubble 2021: Signs and Causes", by Tanushree Gupta and Avichal Sharma, examines and anticipates the divergent real-economy and stock-market circumstances in the face of the pandemic. The stock market's primary goal is to aid businesses in raising capital. The paper examines the reasons behind India's stock market bubble in 2021, including decentralization of businesses from China, an increase in vaccination rates, India's monetary and fiscal policy during the pandemic, and public welfare aid. The paper reports that the Covid-19 pandemic has had a favorable influence on India's stock market, which has continued to rise. The BSE Sensex and Nifty continue to rise and have reached all-time highs. The Sensex's P/E ratio has also sparked concerns about the stock market's future development. The Sensex's typical P/E is generally 18 to 20%, but it is presently at 31.10, which is its highest level. The RBI has expressed worry over the stock market's rise during the pandemic. The Sensex return and equity risk premium are clearly separated, indicating that the stock market is now at a high risk.
The second paper, "The Influence of Heuristics on the Investment Decisions of Investors", by Sreelakshmi Pradeepkumar, emphasizes the illogical nature of man while investing. The field of behavioral finance studies focuses on how psychological factors influence market results. By analyzing the diverse heuristics prevalent in India (Bengaluru city) with the aid of various types of investors, this study explores the importance of behavioral finance in filling the gap between real decisions and influencing variables. The study's participants included conservative, moderate, aggressive, and retired investors. The objectives of the study are manifold, such as: to investigate the various sorts of investors and their respective investment habits; to investigate the many forms of heuristics and their biases; to analyze the impact of heuristics on investment decisions; and to determine whether there is a substantial relationship between the kind of investor and the heuristics used. In terms of hindsight bias, representativeness, gambler fallacy, and the January effect, the findings show that there is a significant difference in certain heuristics used and the decision-making of various types of investors, whereas overconfidence, herd mentality, anchoring bias, availability bias, mental accounting, and loss aversion are unaffected by investor type. The choice of heuristics is determined by the investor's risk tolerance and the scenario in which the investor finds himself/herself. Finally, certain heuristics used by investors have a big impact.
Futures are unbiased spot predictors, and econometric methods have been used to test this notion. One of the most significant purposes of India's commodity futures market is price discovery, since it provides competitive futures from which spot prices may be calculated. The efficiency of the maize commodity traded on NCDEX is investigated in the third paper, "Risk Analysis of Spot and Future Prices of Maize in India", by Ravi Prakash Siddavatam and C Vijendra, by examining the connection between futures and spot prices. For the maize commodity, the study used Daily Futures closing prices at NCDEX and Daily Spot prices at its respective delivery center from December 21, 2012 to December 20, 2018. The study's goal is to determine whether there is a cointegration relationship between futures and spot prices; to determine the lead-lag relationship between futures and spot prices of maize in the NKrishi Index of NCDEX; and to determine how price discovery occurs in maize. Maize is a mature market because it features two cointegrating equations, bidirectional long-run causal linkages, suitable pace of adjustment towards equilibrium from futures and spot market, and acceptable involvement of spot market in predicting futures price. Price discovery is a long-term process. Maize futures can be utilized in industry as a long-term hedge as well as a cross-hedge.
India's Stock Market Bubble 2021: Signs and Causes
This paper analyzes and forecasts the contrasting conditions of real economy and stock market amid pandemic. Stock market is a place where public dealing takes place for issuing, buying, and selling of stocks in the form of facilitation of the transfer of funds from investors to firms. The main aim of the stock market is to assist firms in raising funds. In this paper, the stock market bubble of 2021 and various pull-push factors behind swelling of the stock market are vividly discussed. As it is known, bubble brings rapid rise in the prices of assets and is usually cyclical in nature. Recently, RBI has shown concern over stock market bubble in its financial report. The paper discusses India's stock market bubble 2021 and provides the reasons for the same: decentralization of firms from China, increase in the rate of vaccination, India's monetary and fiscal policy during the pandemic along with the welfare assistance provided to the public.
The Influence of Heuristics on the Investment Decisions of Investors
In the current capitalist world, several theoretical and conceptual studies have established that man is effortlessly irrational in nature at the time of making investment decisions. Behavioral finance concentrates on how psychological effects can affect market outcomes. Thus, this concept is gaining more significance as it helps in elucidating the difference between the actual behavior and the expectations of a resourceful and rational investor behavior. Therefore, it is important to understand the behavior due to the uncertainty in the Indian economy. The present study examines the significance of behavioral finance in filling the gap between the actual decisions and influencing variables by comparing the different heuristics prevailing in India (Bengaluru city) with the help of various types of investors. Moderating effects are used, and technical anomalies are examined based on different heuristic concepts like anchoring and adjustment, herd mentality, overconfidence, outcome bias and self-control bias. The type of investors chosen for this study are conservative, moderate, aggressive, and retired investors. India is chosen as it is a developing country and the economy is prone to misfortunes arising out of the impacts, that is, volatility in the stock market and mispricing of the securities. A statistical study is carried out to evaluate the impact of heuristics on investment decision making and the results show that there is a significant difference between some of the heuristics adopted and the various types of investors' decision making.
Risk Analysis of Spot and Futures Prices of Maize in India
The ultimate emphasis of commodity futures market is for price discovery and price risk management. This study investigates the efficiency by assessing the relationship between futures and spot prices of maize commodity traded on NCDEX by using EViews Version-10 software. The future and spot prices of maize commodity for six years have been studied using unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, VECM, Wald test, Variance decomposition test and impulse response graphs. Futures are unbiased predictors of spot, and this is the hypothesis that has been tested by using the above econometric tools. Price discovery is one of the important economic functions of the commodity futures market in India as it provides competitive futures from which spot price can be arrived. There is cointegration relationship between futures prices and spot prices for maize. This suggests that there is a long-term relationship between futures prices and spot prices of maize.