Sep '19

The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management

Focus

This issue consists of six papers. The first paper, �Inflation, Stock Market Return and Real Estate Sector: Evidence from Indian Economy�, by Hiteksha Upadhyay, intends to show that investors must critically evaluate the investment scenario before investing as inflation and stock market return are parts of systematic risk. The study examines the association among inflation, capital market development and real estate sector using time series of monthly data for the period from January 2007 to January 2017. The study tests for stationarity of time series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, while the Granger causality test results confirm that inflation does not cause realty index return.

The second paper, �Determinants of Credit Risk: A Comparative Study of Islamic and Conventional Banks�, by Qurat-ulAin, looks into the credit risk of conventional and Islamic banks in Pakistan for the period 2007-2015. Panel data regression, Z-score and NPL ratio show that bank-specific factors such as efficiency, ROE and ROA have significant impact on credit risk in conventional banks. In Islamic banks, efficiency and solvency have a significant relationship with credit risk.

The third paper, �Indian Banks and Contingent Liabilities: A Study of Public and Private Sector Banks�, by Kamal Kishore, examines the pattern of contingent liabilities of banks in India. Public sector banks have a conservative stance with about 41% exposure in contingent obligations, while private sector banks have followed a more liberal approach with around 110%. The volume of contingent exposure in private banks is larger due to their better expertise and risk-prone approach. Banks� contingent exposure also includes guarantee obligations on behalf of constituents, acceptances and endorsements, investments in capital contracts, securitization transactions, etc., but their proportion is relatively smaller than forward exchange contracts.

The fourth paper, �Efficiency of Coriander Futures Market in India: A Study�, by Puja Sharma and Tanushree Sharma, analyzes the performance of coriander futures market and its efficiency, using data from NCDEX for the period 2008-2016 and econometric techniques like Johansen�s cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study investigates the long- and short-term mechanisms of prices between spot and futures market. Granger causality test is also applied to examine the casual relationship among the variables. The results indicate bidirectional causality between futures market and spot market. Variance decomposition shows that spot market is dominated by the futures market.

The fifth paper, �Predictive Analytics for Insurer Risk Management: Behavioral Traits of Fraudsters�, by V Padmavathi and Ishaan Sengupta, investigates fraudulent claims and shows that despite developments like Special Investigation Teams (SIT) verifying the authenticity of the claims, the insurance organizations still lose 10% of the claims, given their fraudulent nature. The paper tries to help reduce losses by analyzing the ability of organizations to profile applicants based on behavioral traits and globally accepted psychometric tests to assist insurance organizations in predicting potential fraudsters by knowing more about the clientele they intend to serve.

And the last paper, �Ethics in Insurance Industry: Case Analysis�, by Varsha Vijukumar and B Valarmathi, analyzes the extent of ethics followed by the insurance companies during claim settlements. It is a descriptive study based on the secondary source of various insurance cases undertaken regarding repudiation of claims. The results prove that the insurance companies often take advantage of the lack of awareness among the insuring public regarding insurance regulations. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority, along with the government, should take more efficient steps to ensure that the insurers work ethically for the betterment of the insuring public.

- Ranajee
Consulting Editor

Article   Price (₹)
Inflation, Stock Market Return and Real Estate Sector: Evidence from Indian Economy
100
Determinants of Credit Risk: A Comparative Study of Islamic and Conventional Banks
100
Indian Banks and Contingent Liabilities: A Study of Public and Private Sector Banks
100
Efficiency of Coriander Futures Market in India: A Study
100
Predictive Analytics for Insurer Risk Management: Behavioral Traits of Fraudsters
100
Caselet
Ethics in Insurance Industry: Case Analysis
100
Contents : (Sep '19)

Inflation, Stock Market Return and Real Estate Sector: Evidence from Indian Economy
Hiteksha Upadhyay

The present paper intends to show that investors must critically evaluate the investment scenario before investing because inflation and stock market return are parts of systematic risk which cannot be controlled by them. Real estate is one of the few assets that reacts proportionately to inflation. The present paper examines the association among inflation, capital market development and real estate sector using time series of monthly data for the period from January 2007 to January 2017. Returns on National Stock Exchange Nifty are taken as a proxy for market returns. Consumer price index is taken as a measure of inflation and realty index return represents the real estate sector. The study tests for stationarity of time series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. The Granger causality test results reveal that inflation does not cause realty index return.


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Article Price : ? 100

Determinants of Credit Risk: A Comparative Study of Islamic and Conventional Banks
Qurat-ulAin

To examine the impact of the selected bank-specific variables on credit risk of conventional and Islamic banks of Pakistan is the main objective of this study. The investigation of the chosen Islamic and conventional banks is done for the period 2007-2015. These banks are chosen based on their value commitment. Panel data regression, Z-score and NPL ratio are applied to discover the connection between the factors of the chosen banks. The results show that bank-specific factors such as efficiency, ROE and ROA have a significant relationship with credit risk in case of conventional banking system. In case of Islamic banking system, efficiency and solvency have a significant relationship with credit risk. Bank size has no significant influence on credit risk. Additionally, the overall Z-score for conventional banks is less than that of Islamic banks, i.e., the more prominent the value, the lower will be the credit risk. Further, the extended probability of bank obligation demonstrates high NPL proportion.


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Article Price : ? 100

Indian Banks and Contingent Liabilities: A Study of Public and Private Sector Banks
Kamal Kishore

A contingent liability is one, the occurrence of which is contingent on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event. Contingent liabilities, also known as Off-Balance Sheet (OBS) exposure of banks, are not shown in the main balance sheet in assets and liabilities, but in footnotes. The quantum of such exposure in different components depends on bank factors like banks� business operations, policies and risk expertise. The present paper studies the pattern of contingent liabilities as well as its components prevailing in Indian public and private sector banks for a period of three years ending March 2017. The contingent liabilities of banks in India display no particular pattern and they take exposure in different components in accordance with their business strategy, risk-taking appetite and overall banking operations. While public sector banks have a conservative stance with about 41% exposure in contingent obligations, private sector banks have followed a more liberal approach with around 110%. The volume of contingent exposure in private banks is larger due to their better expertise and risk-prone approach. The extent of contingent exposure depends on individual bank�s business strategy and client needs. In case of both public and private sector banks, the dominant form of contingent exposure is in terms of outstanding forward exchange contracts, which include derivative contracts. Banks� contingent exposure also includes guarantee obligations on behalf of constituents, acceptances and endorsements, investments in capital contracts, securitization transactions, etc., but their proportion is relatively smaller than forward exchange contracts. Given that they are risk-prone contracts, banks have to be prudent while undertaking contingent contracts.


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Article Price : ? 100

Efficiency of Coriander Futures Market in India: A Study
Puja Sharma and Tanushree Sharma

Huge fluctuations have been observed in the prices of agricultural commodities including coriander in the recent years. Coriander is known as a traditional crop which occupies a significant position among the spices in national and international markets. In India, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha are the major producers of coriander. The recent changes in future trading of coriander contract have led to concerns among the regulators and stakeholders. Using data obtained from NCDEX for the period 2008-2016, the present study examines the performance of coriander futures market and its efficiency, using econometric techniques like Johansen�s cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study investigates both the long- and short-term mechanisms of prices between spot and futures market. In addition to it, Granger causality test is also applied to examine the casual relationship among the variables. The results of Granger causality indicate bidirectional causality between futures market and spot market. The impulse response graph reflects that the spot market has a larger response to stocks in the futures index than the futures� response to spot market. The study gives support with regard to the concern for the traders, hedgers and regulators.


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Article Price : ? 100

Predictive Analytics for Insurer Risk Management: Behavioral Traits of Fraudsters
V Padmavathi and Ishaan Sengupta

Insurance organizations around the world have often come across individuals or companies which are their insureds, trying to claim much more than what they are liable to receive after the standard deduction. These are cases which fall under the bracket of fraudulent claims. Such cases prompted the insurance firms to set up investigation teams to verify the authenticity of the claim. However, despite having improved the loss percentage, the Special Investigation Teams (SIT) of insurance companies could not predict potential fraudsters. It is after this that predictive analytics was used to profile insureds based on a huge number of parameters. Despite this development, insurance organizations still lose 10% of the claims as they are fraudulent in nature. What can really aid in the reduction of losses is the ability of the organization to profile applicants and the insured based on behavioral traits. To address this issue, what better than to use the tools already at the disposal of insurance companies for profiling the same? This paper addresses the importance of globally accepted psychometric tests to assist insurance organizations in knowing more about the clientele they intend to serve.


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Article Price : ? 100

Caselet
Ethics in Insurance Industry: Case Analysis
Varsha Vijukumar and B Valarmathi

The insurance sector is one of the most growing and highest profit-making sectors in the country. Its contribution to the GDP growth rate is highly dominant. It is important to ensure that the insurers work ethically for the economic as well as the social development of the country. The study is undertaken to analyze the extent of ethics followed by the insurance companies particularly regarding claim settlements from the perspective of the insuring public. A descriptive study based on the secondary source of various insurance cases is undertaken regarding repudiation of claims. The results prove that the insurance companies often take advantage of the lack of awareness among the insuring public regarding insurance regulations. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority, along with the government, should take more efficient steps to ensure that the insurers work ethically for the betterment of the insuring public. Insurance intermediaries should be highly trained in this regard. However, the study is limited to claim settlement procedures.


© 2019 IUP. All Rights Reserved.

Article Price : ? 100