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The IUP Journal of International Relations

Fallacious Deterrence Theory of Waltz in the Context of Indo-Pak Conflict Over Kashmir

Article Details

Pub. Date	: Jul, 2019
Product Name	: The IUP Journal of International Relations
Product Type	: Article
Product Code	: IJIR31907
Author Name	: Rameez Raja
Availability	: YES
Subject/Domain	: Management
Download Format	: PDF Format
No. of Pages	: 15

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Abstract

Nuclear weapons have been the object of veneration for many states, and some scholars have argued that nuclear warheads are an important factor for deterrence and should be proliferated. However, the case of India and Pakistan is different from that of the US and the former Soviet Union. India and Pakistan have a long history of enmity over Kashmir, and more crises have erupted without resolving the Kashmir dispute since 1947. Both the states possess nuclear warheads, and there is no assurance that they would not behave in an irresponsible way against each other. Both have tried a lot to resolve the Kashmir issue through peace initiatives, but have failed to get a fruitful result. The Kargil War of 1999 was a setback to deterrence theory where India and Pakistan came close to using nuclear warheads, but the US intervened. This study tries to explain the signs of irrationality between the nuclear decision makers of India and Pakistan. Also, the study did not find any kind of fear of nukes between India and Pakistan which is the main argument of Waltz for the success of nuclear deterrence.

Description

The belief in the deterrence theory is vehemently supported by Waltz1 and his iron rule that ‘whoever gets nuclear weapons behaves with caution and moderation’ and whoever gets nuclear weapons does not ‘get attacked militarily’.2 Waltz3 argues that ‘deterrence does not depend on rationality. It depends on fear. To create fear, nuclear weapons are the most possible means’.4 He also argues rather vaguely that nuclear weapons have helped to maintain peace between the Great Powers and its spread may be better.