Jul'19

The IUP Journal of International Relations

Focus

In the recent past, growing China’s engagement in the Indian subcontinent in particular and its increasing footprint in global affairs in general categorically reveals its overreaching strategy to expand its global influence. The main force behind this move is, of course, its remarkable economic growth which it has accomplished in the last three decades.

The ongoing decline in the role of the US as a global superpower has only offered China an opportunity to present itself as a reliable alternative model with its own set of values—its “core national interests”, namely, territorial integrity, One-China policy, and the Chinese party-state governance model. Leveraging on its fiscal strength—switching over to an investment-driven model from an export-oriented model—it has simultaneously funded infrastructure projects in smaller countries located in Africa and the Asian subcontinent, which incidentally minimizes its suffering from any trade disputes—should they arise at a later date—while maximizing its ability to inflict serious economic damage on the host countries.

This strategy has indeed helped China’s political system to fan the nationalist sentiment domestically. And this in turn has helped its political leadership to consolidate its party-state governance model that facilitated the leadership to get away with no democratic accountability, which incidentally bestowed on its leadership additional strategic options such as faster and quieter mobilization of resources—both men and material—with ease unlike in the democratic countries.

Its place in the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member has bestowed on it significant clout, which it is using to advance its geopolitical interests very shrewdly. Additionally, it is also building up new institutions with a hope to ultimately act as their head. And this cumulative strength is being used by it to offer opportunistic support or to deny it as it suits its strategic options—as for instance offering support to Pakistan in the Wassenaar agreement and blocking a proposal much sought by India at the United Nations to designate Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist four times.

President Xi Jinping has made “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” as his objective, and this well reflects in its military build-up and expansive territorial claims. Against this backdrop, though China claims its initiatives—such as the security groupings it formed with Russia, and the former Soviet states in Central Asia and labeled the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, ‘BRICS Bank’, ‘Belt and Road’ project, etc.,—as ‘win-win’ meant for “common destiny of mankind”, its neighboring countries perceive them as “self-serving and expansionist”. Indeed, China’s leaders strongly believe that the next 20 years provide it “a strategic window of opportunity” to achieve its objective of national revitalization. These pursuits of China are in effect driving its neighbors to spend unprecedented sums on their own military build-up, that too, at the cost of development.

Against this backdrop, many intellectuals feel that competition in some form or the other is inevitable between India and China. Whatever might be the developments, one thing is certain: the geopolitical landscape of Asia has dramatically changed and it is irreversible. In this context, in the paper, “Understanding the Assertiveness of China: From the Annals of History”, the author, Keshab Chandra Ratha, tracing its history, observes that China is known for causing anxiety among its neighbors through its actions of unilateralism. Reviewing its assertive behavior in the recent past, the author avers that its foreign policy pursues calculated self-interest at the cost of international institutions, standards and obligations. The author cites China’s claim on international waters, island territories and air space over South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS), etc., in support of his argument that China has become more assertive under Xi’s leadership.

Moving onto the next paper, “Bangladeshi Migration to India: Hindrance to Regional Cooperation”, we hear from its author, Rudra Prasad Sahoo, that illegal cross-border migration from Bangladesh poses a grave threat to India’s security and any acceptance of migrants on humanitarian grounds would only become a cumbersome affair. Besides, this issue has become a serious stumbling block in shaping India’s foreign policy, argues the author. Stating that migration, being a sensitive issue, demands meticulous analysis, the author suggests certain ways and means to minimize its threat to India’s internal security and offers a right perspective to accomplish regional cooperation.

The paper, “Fallacious Deterrence Theory of Waltz in the Context of Indo-Pak Conflict Over Kashmir ”, argues that the deterrence theory of Waltz which states that ‘whoever gets nuclear weapons behaves with caution and moderation’ and whoever has nuclear weapons does not ‘get attacked militarily’ does not hold good in the case of Indo-Pak conflict over Kashmir. Tracing the long history of enmity between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, the author of the paper, Rameez Raja, mapping the irrationality of the decision makers of India and Pakistan, holders of nukes, observes that nuclear weapons have little or no influence in averting a war between India and Pakistan.

In the last paper of the issue, “The Role of Indian Diaspora: A Look at India-Myanmar Relations”, its authors, Mohammad Janesar and Rajesh Sahu, arguing that Myanmar has become a critical country for India’s “Act East Policy” (AEP), have examined the role of the Indian Diaspora, the ‘soft power’, in ensuring the internal and external security objectives of India. They have also offered suggestions for improving India’s relations with Myanmar.

-GRK Murty
Consulting Editor

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Understanding the Assertiveness of China: From the Annals of History
50
Bangladeshi Migration to India: Hindrance to Regional Cooperation
50
Fallacious Deterrence Theory of Waltz in the Context of Indo-Pak Conflict Over Kashmir
50
The Role of Indian Diaspora: A Look at India-Myanmar Relations
50
       
Articles

Understanding the Assertiveness of China: From the Annals of History
Keshab Chandra Ratha

China has a long history of fomenting a swell of anxiety among its neighbors through the action of unilateralism. As an assertive nation, it tries not only to control territory and the behavior of other states but also to exercise more influence over the organization and management of the world economy. An assertive China is contributing massively in developing military power, especially aerospace power, laying claims on international waters, island territories and air space over South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS). China’s foreign policy believes in keenly calculated self-interest, at the cost of the international institutions, standards and obligations. The resulting lack of clarity about ‘what China is’, creates an impression in the minds of outsiders to conceptualize the country’s actions as signs of increasing assertiveness. The major thrust of the paper is to explore the main driving forces that lie behind the history of an assertive China. Besides, it makes an objective assessment of China’s pattern of behavior in recent decades by identifying and examining its potential assertiveness in various fields.


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Bangladeshi Migration to India: Hindrance to Regional Cooperation
Rudra Prasad Sahoo

Illegal Bangladeshi migration is a matter of concern and has posed a great threat to the national security of India. The issue of illegal Bangladeshi migration remains a potent political issue and assumes much significance in India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, especially in the context of taking a decision in shaping India’s foreign policy. How to respond to internal and external threats coming from illegal Bangladeshi migrants is a major challenge. Even more difficult is how to guide India’s policy within the region and other regions for fostering cooperation to achieve India’s larger national and regional security interest. This issue of illegal migration is a sensitive matter and needs meticulous thinking in the geopolitical chessboard of the Indian subcontinent. Hence, this paper attempts to explain how to deal with the illegal Bangladeshi migration issue in order to minimize the threat to India’s internal security and provide the right approach to achieve regional cooperation.


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Fallacious Deterrence Theory of Waltz in the Context of Indo-Pak Conflict Over Kashmir
Rameez Raja

Nuclear weapons have been the object of veneration for many states, and some scholars have argued that nuclear warheads are an important factor for deterrence and should be proliferated. However, the case of India and Pakistan is different from that of the US and the former Soviet Union. India and Pakistan have a long history of enmity over Kashmir, and more crises have erupted without resolving the Kashmir dispute since 1947. Both the states possess nuclear warheads, and there is no assurance that they would not behave in an irresponsible way against each other. Both have tried a lot to resolve the Kashmir issue through peace initiatives, but have failed to get a fruitful result. The Kargil War of 1999 was a setback to deterrence theory where India and Pakistan came close to using nuclear warheads, but the US intervened. This study tries to explain the signs of irrationality between the nuclear decision makers of India and Pakistan. Also, the study did not find any kind of fear of nukes between India and Pakistan which is the main argument of Waltz for the success of nuclear deterrence.


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The Role of Indian Diaspora: A Look at India-Myanmar Relations
Mohammad Janesar and Rajesh Sahu

Indo-Myanmar relations are based on history and civilizational ties. Indo-Myanmar’s close socio-economic, commercial, political, cultural relations had existed all through the ages dating back to ancient and medieval times. Beyond these ties, ethnic links between the people of Myanmar and India exist in four states bordering Myanmar, namely, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram, and have continued since antiquity. In contemporary epoch, both countries have been enjoying warm and friendly relations. For example, Myanmar is the only gateway to Southeast Asia connecting India by land and acts as a buffer zone between the northeastern region and China. Myanmar is considered as one of India’s immediate neighbors and part of its successful Look East Policy (LEP), currently Act East Policy (AEP). For India, Myanmar is the connecting bridge as it is crucial for India’s LEP, besides the development of stronger ties with Southeast Asia and East Asian countries. Consequently, it is important to examine the role of the Indian Diaspora in achieving internal (stabilizing border areas) as well as external (stabilizing Southeast Asia) security objectives of India. The diaspora has emerged as a powerful lobby since they are documented as “soft power” in International Relations and foreign policy strategy. It is also a driving force or agent of economic development between India and Myanmar. Therefore, this paper attempts to study the role of the Indian Diaspora in transforming the bilateral relations between India and Myanmar in the contemporary context.


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Article Price : Rs.50