Sep'18

Articles

Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Non-Agricultural Commodity Market in India
Ruchika Kaura, Nawal Kishor and Namita Rajput

Commodity futures market has grown considerably in India over the past few years. The study aims to investigate the issue of price discovery and volatility spillovers in the context of non-agricultural sector of Indian commodity market using econometric models. The study uses the futures and spot price data of nine highly traded non-agricultural commodities of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited. The results prove that all commodities futures and spot prices are cointegrated. There exists bidirectional error correction in all commodities spot and futures market, and futures market leads in price discovery over the spot market. Only in the case of commodity gold, spot market leads the futures market. The results of GARCH test prove that there are bidirectional spillover effects in the case of most of the commodities, and spillovers from futures returns to spot returns are more prominent than the other way round. The results imply that futures market in India is playing its role in improving pricing efficiency and also influences the spot market volatility. More...


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A Study of the Efficiency of Chili Futures Market in India
Puja Sharma and Tanushree Sharma

Chili is the largest spice exported from India and occupies the first position in terms of value. Chili futures was launched on NCDEX on March 11, 2005. There has been a drastic fall in the prices of different varieties of red chilli in 2017 in Andhra Pradesh and the rest of the country. The recent changes in futures trading of chili contract have led to concerns for the stakeholders. The present paper examines the price discovery and efficiency of chili futures market using econometric models like Johansen's cointegration, vector error correction model, Wald test, impulse response and variance decomposition on data on daily closing spot and futures prices of chili obtained from NCDEX for the period from 2006 to 2016. The results indicate that both the markets are cointegrated and error correction is taking place in both the markets. The Granger causality test result also confirms this. However, Wald test results reveal short-term causality flowing from futures to spot prices for chili. The study observes long-run comovement between spot and futures prices which indicates futures contracts can serve as a useful hedging instrument. More...


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The Impact of Basel III Norms on Profitability: An Empirical Study of Indian Public Sector Banks
Krishan K Boora and Kavita

With the deteriorating asset quality and financial health of banking institutions and the recent upsurge of bank failures due to global financial crisis, it is vindicated that bank profitability needs an increased investigation from industry analysts and scholars. The recent global financial crisis contemplated the significance of banks' profitability for the stability of economy as well as banking sector, reflecting the need to maintain it under surveillance all the time. Poor financial performance of banks has negative repercussion on economy which can lead to economic failures and crises. Banking crisis can lead to financial crisis which in turn leads to economic crisis. That is why Basel III norms have emerged as stringent regulations to foster a healthy and sound banking system. Banks all over the world are facing several problems in implementing Basel III norms due to lack of adequate funds, increasing NPAs, pressure on Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). It is possible that Indian public sector banks have been undergoing pressure after implementing the capital regulations. Hence, the present study intends to examine the financial performance of Indian public sector banks and investigate the impact of Basel III on profitability of banks. The study uses ROA and ROE as profitability indicators of 21 Indian public sector banks for a period of 10 years (2007-2017). Conclusively, the study can be useful for bankers, decision makers and particularly for the investors looking for profitable opportunities in Indian banking sector. More...


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The Effect of Brexit on Indian Stock Market: An Empirical Study
E Madhavi and N Rajender Reddy

The effect of Brexit was hard on many economies. Emerging economies like India suffered hugely as many of its industries were greatly affected. Analysis of stock returns in such eventful scenarios helps us to take measures to mitigate the risks to a large extent with the help of forecasting for the safety of investors and businesses. The present event study analyzes the effect of Brexit on Indian stock market for pre-, during and post-Brexit periods. The data of Nifty 50 and seven sectoral indices returns were selected based on highly impacted sectors based on the correlation test done on all the sectors of Nifty. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) models were used for the analysis, and the test results for the last four years (983 observations) indicate that there is significant impact of Brexit on Indian stock market. More...


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