Article Details
  • Published Online:
    October  2026
  • Product Name:
    The IUP Journal of International Relations
  • Product Type:
    Article
  • Product Code:
    IJIR021026
  • DOI:
    10.71329/IUPJIR/2026.20.4.26-43
  • Author Name:
    Shiv Kumar, Sudheer Singh Verma and Davinderpal Singh
  • Availability:
    YES
  • Subject/Domain:
    Arts and Humanities
  • Download Format:
    PDF
  • Pages:
    26-43
Vol. 20, Issue 4, October-December 2026
India’s ‘Strategic Calculus’ During Operation Sindoor: An Analysis Using Rational Choice Framework
Abstract

The study argues that the recent India-Pakistan conflict, after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, has shifted the narrative from ‘clash of civilizations’ to a ‘rational choices’ framework, underscored by the changed preferences and strategic calculations of the political actors involved. The study examines the genesis of the conflict by using Samuel P Huntington’s proposition, the ‘clash of civilizations’, which posits that post- Cold War conflicts would primarily occur along civilizational fault lines, rather than ideological or economic divisions. Within this framework, the study analyzes how the India-Pakistan conflict with regard to Kashmir is still portrayed by the Pakistan military as a fault line conflict between Islamic and Hindu civilizations. The study applies the ‘rational choice’ theoretical framework to understand the changing rational behavior of the political actors, India and Pakistan, as they seek to maximize their geopolitical, geostrategic and economic interests through utility maximization, strategic interaction, and building institutional design and equilibrium, particularly after ‘Operation Sindoor’. The study also sheds light on the ‘strategic calculus’ of India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ and its long-term geostrategic, military and security implications for the regional and global order.

Introduction

In response to a Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack at a tourist place, Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, part of India, in April 2025, in which 25 Hindu tourists and a local Muslim person were killed1