Article Details
  • Published Online:
    April  2025
  • Product Name:
    The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
  • Product Type:
    Article
  • Product Code:
    IJAF030425
  • DOI:
    10.71329/IUPJAF/2025.31.2.40-52
  • Author Name:
    N Lalitha
  • Availability:
    YES
  • Subject/Domain:
    Finance
  • Download Format:
    PDF
  • Pages:
    40-52
Volume 31, Issue 2, April 2025
A Behavioral Inertia Model for Stock Price Estimation
Abstract

Many studies in financial literature indicate that the existence of irrational traders causes the market price of an asset to deviate from its intrinsic value. A possible cause of mispricing could be the role of sentiments in guiding investor’s behavior. This study develops and tests a dynamic stock price model that incorporates inertia in stock price behavior, and examines the role of volatility index in influencing stock price. The model is estimated using generalized method of moments (GMM), which is well suited for models with endogenous variables. The study finds that as the expected market volatility increases, the change in the log price tends to decrease, indicating an inverse relationship between expected market volatility and price movements.

Introduction

In a world filled with uncertainty, people often do not possess the essential knowledge needed to maximize their objectives, which leads them to rely on previous experiences when making economic decisions.