Published Online:October 2025
Product Name:The IUP Journal of Applied Economics
Product Type:Article
Product Code:IJAE011025
DOI:10.71329/IUPJAE/2025.24.4.5-18
Author Name:Harendra Pratap Singh Choudhri, Deepak Kumar Verma, Ram Suresh Sharma and Sanjay Kumar
Availability:YES
Subject/Domain:Economics
Download Format:PDF
Pages:5-18
This study on the economics of palmarosa cultivation and future prospects for export of palmarosa oil in India was conducted in Gujarat. In this study, specific statistical tools and the ARIMA model are used to predict palmarosa oil export in India. The results reveal that the total cost of cultivation and gross income per hectare are inversely related. It is also observed that B:C ratio is 1:1.52, which implies that spending one rupee on cultivation of palmarosa crop gives 1.52 in net return, implying profit for farmers. For prediction, annual data from 2001-02 to 2021-22 are used. The best-fitting model is selected based on autocorrelation and partial correlation at different lags. The forecasting performance of the model is selected based on minimum R2 values and maximum RMSE, MAPE, AIC, and MAE values. Empirical results show that ARIMA (1,1,3) model for quantity and ARIMA (0,1,3) model for value are suitable for prediction of palmarosa oil exports.
Palmarosa is an essential oil-bearing perennial (five years rotation) crop cultivated in tropical and subtropical conditions, in various types of soil. For ideal growth and production, it requires a hot and dry climate with soil pH range of 7.0-9.5. It is the most popular crop among farmers because it requires less water and is a less risky crop against high temperatures,