Forecasting Competitors’ Market Share Using Multivariate Linear Time Series Analysis

--Rolf Kunstek

The paper presents an approach to forecast competitors’ market share in the banking industry. Multivariate linear time series analysis was applied to a state space model with stochastic components. Three time series were interrelated as two exogenous variables and one endogenous variable. The interrelation was restricted to stochastic trends. Two dummy variables were added to the model to smoothen the exogenous variables. In the example, market shares development analysis was presented, two competitors correlate positively; that is, they have a nearly parallel development. Both competitors, however, correlate negatively with a third competitor; that is, the third competitor has an antagonistic relation to each of them. This type of analysis allows accurate and reliable forecasts which are important for competitor monitoring. Moreover, the forecasts can be used as an expected case in the market scenario. The paper is an important contribution to the exploration of the quantitative dynamics of competition systems that are generated by the business activities of competitors.

© 2013 IUP. All Rights Reserved.

The Impact of Sales Promotion on Sales: A Case of Select Telecommunication Firms in Nigeria

-- Donald Ikenna Ofoegbu and Etokakpan Mfonobong Udom

The present paper investigates the influence of sales promotion as a marketing strategy of the telecommunication firms in Nigeria on consumer buying and network switching. Four Nigerian telecommunication firms—Globacom, MTN, Etisalat and Airtel—were selected for the study with a sample of 400 respondents. Building on the Attention, Interest, Desire and Action (AIDA) model, the study implements both descriptive and inferential methods of analysis. The analyses led to the acceptance of an alternative hypothesis that sales promotion is a significant catalyst in influencing consumer buying. The study revealed that educational level, number of operative Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) cards owned by the subscribers, age, gender (more female) and even lottery had a significant effect on buying. Further evidence showed that customers were likely to abandon their present telecom provider if they did not carry out sales promotion either as an incentive to buyers or compensation for patronage overtime. The customers were ready to switch to other telecommunication providers that offered mouth-watering sales promotions. The study therefore recommends the need for innovative, dynamic and well-differentiated sales promotional services by the telecommunication firms if they desire to maintain and increase the market share.

© 2013 IUP. All Rights Reserved.

Sales Forecast for the Indian Tractor Industry for the FY 2012-13

-- Nidhi Vishnoi Sharma and Varsha Khattri

India is an agriculture-based economy and the tractor industry plays an important role in the Indian agricultural sector. Though the Indian tractor industry is young with the manufacturing process starting in 1961-62, it has now become the largest market worldwide. Presently, there are 13 major players in the industry, with Mahindra & Mahindra being the leader. In recent years, the industry has registered a good sales growth—both domestic as well as exports—partly because of the government initiatives to boost agriculture and the agricultural machinery industry. This study gives an insight into the tractor industry in India, analyzes the current sales scenario of tractors, and forecasts the sales for the year 2012-13, including sales forecast for 13 different states. The study was done using the statistical package MINITAB. The most appropriate ARIMA models have been developed and used for forecasting. The findings show that the industry sale in volume for 2012-13 is forecasted to grow at 30.4% compared to 2011-12 sale volume.

© 2013 IUP. All Rights Reserved.

Comparative Advertising: An Analysis of Cases of Disparagement

--B Shafiulla

The term ‘disparagement’ has not been defined in any statute, and what constitutes product disparagement is derived from judicial pronouncements. The Trademarks Act, 1999, Section 29(8) enunciates a situation where use of another’s trademarks in advertising can amount to trademark infringement, if such use does not comply with the conditions laid down under the section. This paper features the benefits of CA and focuses on the cases of disparagement in India. The four major cases of product disparagement considered herein for analysis are: (1) Pepsi Co. Inc. and, Ors. vs. Hindustan Coca Cola Ltd.; (2) GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited vs. Heinz India Private Limited; (3) New Pepsodent vs. Colgate; and (4) Godrej vs. Vasmol. Recent CA controversies involving Nokia and Onida mobile phone, and Rin and Tide, are also taken as instances for a discussion on CA and disparagement. Based on an analysis of these cases of disparagement, suggestions have been provided to advertisers on how to use comparative advertisements effectively while avoiding product disparagement of competitors.

© 2013 IUP. All Rights Reserved.