This issue consists of four papers. The first paper, “Forecasting Competitors’ Market Share Using Multivariate Linear Time Serie Analysis”, by Rolf Kunstek, explores the quantitative dynamics of competitive systems resulting from the business activities of competitors. It focuses on the banking industry where two exogenous and one endogenous variable are considered. Two dummy variables are used to smoothen the trend of exogenous variables. The market share development analysis resulted in positive correlation and nearly parallel development between two competitors. The third competitor had negative correlation with the two competitors mentioned. The analysis gives a clear picture about the competitive forces between competitors. Thus it helps in accurate forecasts which are important for competitor monitoring.

The second paper, “The Impact of Sales Promotion on Sales: A Case of Select Telecommunication Firms in Nigeria”, by Donald Ikenna Ofoegbu and Etokakpan Mfonobong Udom, focuses on the impact of sales promotion on the sales of four Nigerian telecommunication firms. The study uses descriptive and inferential methods of analysis by building on the Attention, Interest, Desire and Action (AIDA) model. The study classifies sales promotion into push promotions, pull promotions and combination promotions, and highlights an earlier research paper by Gedenk and Neslin (1999) who argued that sales promotions can lead to a significant decrease in brand loyalty. The study also proves that the dynamics of the market are regularly changing due to innovative, dynamic and well-differentiated sales promotion tactics by telecom firms.

The third paper, “Sales Forecast for the Indian Tractor Industry for the FY 2012-13”, by Nidhi Vishnoi Sharma and Varsha Khattri, focuses on the Indian tractor industry. India is mainly an agriculture-based economy and the tractor industry plays an important role in the Indian agricultural sector, which is a major contributor to India’s GDP. This study gives an insight into the uniqueness of the Indian market as it mainly depends on monsoon, and the tractors sold are of 21-50 HP range. The study reveals that earlier tractors were mainly used for agricultural purposes, but now they are also being used in haulage, construction and infrastructure projects, resulting in expansion of the market. The study forecasts the growth segments amongst various states of India so that the areas where major growth is expected can be identified by various industry players. MINITAB package and ARIMA models have been developed to forecast the sales. The findings reveal that there will be a 30.4% sales volume growth in 2013 compared to 2012. State-wise growth rates give a bird’s eye view of the growing market.

The last paper, “Comparative Advertising: An Analysis of Cases of Disparagement”, by B Shafiulla, attempts to provide an understanding of Comparative Advertising (CA) and Product Disparagement (PD). It attempts to study and analyze the thin line between CA and PD. The study states that the law relating to PD in India has mainly evolved through judicial pronouncements of Indian courts, some of which have been discussed in the paper. MRTP Act, 1984 and Trademarks Act, 1999 provide the basic legal structure for governing CA. The study argues that CA is permissible within certain limits. However, if the manner is one of ridiculing and condemning the goods of the competitor, then it amounts to disparagement.

-- B Shafiulla
Consulting Editor